What is an Octopus in Football Betting?

An octopus in football is when the same player scores a touchdown and then scores the two-point conversion on the same drive. The player accounts for all 8 points on that possession (6 for the touchdown + 2 for the conversion), hence "octopus" (eight legs, eight points).

It's one of the rarer prop bets you'll see, mostly popular during the Super Bowl and NFL playoffs when sportsbooks get creative with their prop offerings.

How rare is an octopus?

Very. Two things need to happen on the same drive:

1. A player scores a touchdown
2. The team goes for two instead of kicking the extra point
3. The same player who scored the TD also scores the two-point conversion

Step 2 is the biggest bottleneck. NFL teams attempt two-point conversions on roughly 8-12% of touchdowns, depending on the season and game situation. Most touchdowns are followed by an extra point kick, which eliminates the possibility of an octopus entirely.

Even when a team does go for two, the player who scored the touchdown isn't always the one who converts. The two-point play might be a pass to a different receiver, a run by a different back, or even a designed play where the QB keeps it.

Rough math: if a player scores a touchdown (probability varies by player) and the team goes for two about 10% of the time, and the same player converts the two-point attempt maybe 30-40% of the time when it's attempted, you're looking at roughly a 3-4% chance of an octopus on any given touchdown. Over a full game where a player might score 0-2 touchdowns, the per-game probability is very low.

Where to bet on an octopus

Most sportsbooks offer octopus props during the Super Bowl and occasionally during playoff games. Regular-season octopus bets are harder to find, though some books offer them as part of "exotic" or "novelty" prop menus.

Typical octopus prop odds:

• Any player to score an octopus: +700 to +1200 (varies by game)
• Specific player to score an octopus: +3000 to +10000

The odds reflect the rarity. A +1000 bet implies a ~9% probability, which might be slightly overpriced or underpriced depending on the specific matchup and two-point conversion tendencies.

What affects octopus probability

Team two-point conversion tendencies

Some coaches go for two more aggressively than others. Teams that are trailing, especially late in games, attempt more two-point conversions. Games expected to be blowouts (in either direction) actually have higher octopus probability because the losing team goes for two more often.

Game script

When a team is down 15 points in the fourth quarter, they need two touchdowns and two two-point conversions to tie. The NFL's scoring rules define the two-point conversion as a scrimmage play from the opponent's 2-yard line. This scenario dramatically increases the probability of two-point attempts, which increases octopus probability.

High-scoring games and games with expected garbage time create more opportunities.

Player role

Running backs who play on goal-line packages are the most likely octopus candidates because they score touchdowns from short yardage AND are natural ball carriers on two-point plays. Tight ends who line up in the red zone and run two-point routes are also worth watching.

Wide receivers who score on deep passes are less likely because the two-point play from the 2-yard line is a different situation than a 40-yard bomb.

QBs who run (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts) have a unique octopus path: throw a TD pass, then keep the ball on the two-point conversion. Some sportsbooks price QB octopus props differently because of this.

Is the octopus bet worth it?

As a recreational/fun bet during the Super Bowl, it's fine entertainment. The odds are long, the payout is big, and you'll know pretty quickly if you have a chance.

As a serious bet, the math is tricky. Sportsbooks price exotic props with wider margins than standard markets. The vig on a +1000 prop can be massive because there's no sharp market to benchmark against. You can't compare an octopus line at DraftKings against Pinnacle's octopus line because Pinnacle doesn't offer it.

This means the standard value betting approach of comparing retail odds against sharp lines doesn't work for octopus props. You'd need to build your own probability model using touchdown scorers, two-point conversion rates, and conditional probabilities.

For prop betting in general, standard player props (passing yards, rushing yards, touchdowns) offer much better value opportunities because they're priced in liquid markets with sharp competition.